Sunday, August 30, 2009

Parity Update :



I wouldn't be surprised to see parity before thursday. Talk of EC members overthrowing the stability pact seems overdone and doesn't present a real threat to the union. There's likely something else in the water that's undercutting the Euro. My suspicion is that the market had performed an estimation of the viability of the Euro at parity several weeks ago and found it wanting. The deficit situation is a proxy for this sentiment. What , until recently, has been driving the Euro UP is the weight of the dollar going DOWN, not a sudden appreciation for mediocre growth and marginal improvements in domestic demand. I have limit orders in the high .9990's to short 20,000 units with a target of .9800 , stop 1.0055

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